Africa’s demand for refined oil products is projected to increase from about 4 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 6 million barrels per day by 2050, according to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) 2026 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy.
Authored by AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk, the report emphasizes that population growth, urbanization, and industrialization will drive this surge, creating significant opportunities for energy security and economic development. With Africa’s population expected to reach nearly 2.4 billion by 2050, per capita consumption, currently among the lowest globally, is anticipated to rise, particularly in sub Saharan countries.
The report highlights Africa as the continent likely to lead global gasoline demand growth over the long term, with consumption projected to exceed 2.2 million barrels per day by 2050. Nigeria already dominates continental gasoline demand, yet its per capita usage remains comparatively low. In established markets like Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa, demand is expected to stagnate in the early 2040s due to improving fuel economy and electric vehicle adoption.
Diesel will see even more pronounced growth, with consumption expected to increase by about 880,000 barrels per day by 2050, nearly 50 percent from current levels, driven by mining, transportation, and infrastructure expansion, particularly in Angola, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zimbabwe.
Jet fuel and kerosene consumption is rebounding strongly, projected to rise 65 percent by 2050 as intra regional air travel and tourism expand. Meanwhile, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) adoption for clean cooking remains low, with only 20 million tonnes consumed annually.
The report notes that over 900 million Africans lack access to clean cooking solutions, relying on wood, dung, coal, or paraffin. The switch to LPG would reduce particulate matter by 98 percent and save 1.2 million hectares of forest annually, representing a quarter of global deforestation. The conversion to LPG cooking would also cut black carbon emissions by 117 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year. Yet growth remains constrained by regulatory, financing, and distribution challenges.
According to the report, Africa will require over USD 20 billion in downstream infrastructure investment by 2050 to meet growing refined product needs. Flagship projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, along with smaller initiatives in Angola and Uganda, are necessary but insufficient alone to meet the continent’s anticipated consumption.
Ayuk stated that the report underscores Africa’s energy future as one of immense growth. He added that policymakers, investors, and international partners must prioritize local refining, efficient trading, and cleaner fuel adoption to meet the needs of 2.4 billion people by mid century.
Forecasts suggest that the continent’s population could swell by more than 930 million people, reaching nearly 2.4 billion by 2050, which would account for 25 percent of the world’s population and 63 percent of global population growth between now and then. Economic projections are equally substantial, with Africa’s 2050 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to nearly triple from current levels to around USD 7.8 trillion after growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.8 to 3.9 percent in the coming decades.
Currently, despite representing 18 percent of the global population, Africa consumes less than 5 percent of the world’s oil products and contributes just 3 percent to global GDP. This disparity indicates untapped potential.
The report reveals that gasoline will remain the backbone of personal and commercial mobility, especially in less developed regions where economic activity requires road transport. Though alternative powertrains like electric vehicles will penetrate the market, they’ll do so slowly due to inadequate electricity supply and the scarcity of charging infrastructure.
Diesel demand growth positions Africa as the top growth region for the product, surpassing Latin America. The fuel remains critical for heavy industry and extractive operations across the continent, with mining companies and infrastructure projects driving sustained consumption increases.
The aviation sector’s recovery follows years of subdued activity during global disruptions. As African economies expand and middle class populations grow, air travel within the continent is expected to increase substantially, particularly on routes connecting major commercial centers and tourist destinations.
The report notes that smaller, less developed markets will lead the economic charge, amplifying demand for energy intensive activities. This trend suggests that countries currently categorized as frontier markets may emerge as significant energy consumers over the next two decades.
Stakeholders are urged to concentrate investment on key areas like refining capacity, trading networks, and adoption of cleaner fuels if Africa is to be prepared for the 2050 projections. The report emphasizes that while many advanced economies are moving to reduce their dependence on oil and gas, Africa is next in line to benefit from its own resources.
The State of African Energy 2026 Outlook was developed in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights and launched at African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies 2025 conference in Cape Town. The report provides comprehensive analysis into various facets of the African energy sector, detailing challenges and opportunities in hydrocarbons, renewable energy, power, finance and technology.